📆 DAILY CHART OUTLOOK — SPY

Week of March 2, 2026

The daily chart continues to rotate through pattern formation and invalidation inside a larger compression regime.

Last week did not continue the prior bull flag. It reset structure again — and then established a new one.

We are now inside a confirmed daily bull flag.

🔄 Structural Sequence (What Happened)

1️⃣ Early Week: Bull Flag Failure

Instead of continuing the prior bull structure:

• Monday: Lower high + lower low

• Closed below 38.2% retracement

• Pattern invalidated

That immediately opened the door to a new bear flag attempt.

2️⃣ Tuesday → Wednesday: Bear Flag Attempt Fails

• Tuesday printed another lower high and lower low intraday

• Wednesday gapped higher

• Closed above that pattern’s 38.2%

• Bear flag invalidated

Another structure erased.

Chop behavior continues.

3️⃣ Thursday: New Bull Flag Established

The current active structure formed as follows:

• Pattern Low: 680 (Tuesday 2/24)

• Pattern High Anchor: 693.68 (Wednesday 2/25)

• 38.2% Retracement Level: 685.23

On Thursday (2/26):

• Price printed a lower high and lower low

• Closed above 685.23 (38.2%)

• Validated the bull flag

That officially established the pattern.

4️⃣ Friday: Pattern Holds

Friday:

• Gapped lower

• Held above 100SMA

• Reclaimed bull flag support into the close

• Pattern remains valid

📌 Active Pattern State

Active Pattern: Daily Bull Flag

Low Anchor: 680 (2/24)

High Anchor: 693.68 (2/25)

38.2% Level: 685.23

Support Floor: 680

Structural Invalidation: Close below 680

The pattern remains active as long as price holds above 680 on a closing basis.

📐 Immediate Structure Map

We are still inside the larger chop zone between:

• 675.78 (prior bear support / 100SMA zone)

• 692.6 (major resistance + trendline overhead)

For this bull flag to mature, price must:

1. Push through 692.6 + downtrend line

2. Clear ATH resistance 697.14–697.84

3. Build structure above that zone

Without that, this remains another compression attempt.

🔍 Momentum Context

• Daily squeeze has now been active for the entire month of February

• MACD remains below zero

• DI- > DI+

• ADX beginning to rise

This is critical:

Momentum is not yet aligned with the bull flag.

If bulls do not reclaim control quickly, the rising ADX with DI- leading could flip this back into bearish pressure.

🧭 What Matters This Week

🟢 Bullish Continuation

If price:

• Holds above 685.23

• Continues making higher highs and higher lows

• Breaks 692.6 + trendline

• And momentum confirms (squeeze release, MACD turning up, DI+ overtaking DI- with rising ADX)

Then this structure could finally break the multi-month chop.

🔴 Bearish Reversal Trigger

If price:

• Closes below 680

• And especially loses 100SMA again

• Then breaks 675.78

A new daily bear flag will form from below.

That would likely point price back toward the weekly support zone outlined in higher timeframe analysis.

Given:

• MACD below 0

• DI- currently leading

• ADX rising

If this flips, it could accelerate quickly.

🎯 Bottom Line

We are inside:

• A confirmed daily bull flag

• Anchored at 680 (2/24)

• With 685.23 as the key retracement pivot

• Inside a one-month daily squeeze

• Inside a weekly squeeze

• Inside a three-month chop range

This week is critical.

If bulls cannot expand soon, the rising ADX favors downside pressure.

If they can, the compression across timeframes could release explosively.

The structure is clear.

Now we watch how it behaves.