📆 DAILY CHART OUTLOOK — SPY

Week of February 23, 2026

The daily chart remains volatile and pattern-sensitive, but we are no longer outside structure.

We are now inside a newly forming daily bull flag.

🔄 Structural Context

Last week began with a developing bear flag. That bear flag was invalidated on Friday when price closed above its 38.2% retracement (688.98).

That invalidation created the conditions for a new bullish structure.

📌 Newly Forming Pattern

• Pattern Type: Bull Flag (early stage)

• Pattern Low: 681.55 (set Thursday 2/19)

• This low followed the bear flag invalidation sequence

• Friday confirmed a higher low relative to that 2/19 pivot

This means:

We are now actively monitoring whether price can continue forming higher highs and higher lows from 681.55.

That 2/19 low is now the structural anchor.

If price loses 681.55 on a closing basis, this newly forming bull flag is invalidated.

That level matters.

📐 Immediate Structure Map

Key zones:

• 681.55 → Newly forming bull flag low

• 675.78 → Prior bear support / 100SMA region

• 692.6 → Major resistance (October bull flag target)

• Downtrend line overhead

• ATH zone 697.14–697.84

This entire region has been a multi-month compression zone.

The difference now is we have a fresh structural low.

🔍 Momentum State

Current daily study positioning:

• Daily squeeze active

• Histogram recently negative, now at risk of flipping

• MACD attempting to stabilize

• ADX still low

• DMI in transition

This is still compression behavior — not confirmed trend behavior.

🟢 Bullish Development Path (Active Structure)

For this new bull flag to mature:

1. Price must continue printing higher highs and higher lows above 681.55.

2. First objective: 692.6 + downtrend resistance.

3. If cleared, next test: ATH resistance 697.14–697.84.

4. The most bullish outcome would be forming a new bull flag above ATH resistance.

Additionally, the stacked confirmation we are watching for:

• Squeeze releases upward

• Histogram flips positive

• MACD crosses bullish with follow-through

• DI+ crosses above DI- while ADX rises

That combination would mark the first legitimate trend expansion attempt in weeks.

🟡 Most Likely Near-Term

Given the past three months:

• Rally into resistance

• Stall

• Whipsaw or sharp fade

Unless momentum confirms, chop remains the default state.

🔴 Bearish Reversal Trigger

If price:

• Closes below 681.55 → new bull flag invalidated

• Then breaks 675.78 / 100SMA → opens path to prior bear targets

That would likely align with:

• Histogram staying negative

• MACD rolling back down

• DI- overtaking DI+ with rising ADX

That would reestablish daily bear flag conditions from below.

🎯 Bottom Line

We are:

• Inside a newly forming bull flag

• Anchored at 681.55 (2/19)

• Inside a larger multi-month chop range

• Inside a daily and weekly squeeze

• In a regime that punishes premature conviction

This week is about whether the 681.55 low becomes the foundation for expansion — or just another failed attempt.

If it breaks, it should break with momentum confirmation.

If it fails, it should fail fast.