SPY Breakout Rejected — Why Patience Matters Here

📅 DAILY MARKET ANALYSIS (SPY — Daily Chart)

Last week’s breakout played out exactly as expected.

On Monday, we flagged thedaily breakout in real timeheading into the close, with$689.7–$692.6marked as the primary resistance / upside target zone. That level was reached on Thursday, and by Friday momentum had already begun to stall — with4H momentum rolling bearish into the close, just as noted in last Sunday’s update.

From there, the roadmap was clear:

• Lose Friday’s low → pullback into the rising trendline

• Lose the trendline → deeper retracement toward the50SMA / daily support zone

That entire sequence has now unfolded.

Price failed to hold the breakout level from the prior Monday’s pattern, rolled over, and spent Fridayhanging just above the 50SMA, confirming that the breakout attempt has been rejected for now.

Momentum has followed price:

• Daily MACDhas crossed back to bearish

• DMIhas also rolled bearish

• A handful of studies are still marginally bullish, but overall alignment has clearly weakened

Taken together, this puts the market in a spot whereupside is likely choppy at best, not clean or impulsive.

🧭 What Matters From Here

At this stage, the focus shifts away from upside continuation and towardstructure reset.

What we want to see next:

• Thesqueeze histogram roll over and alignwith broader bearish momentum

• Adeeper retracement into daily support levels, not just shallow consolidation

That type of pullback would likely form anew daily bear flag, which can act as the mechanism to guide price lower into stronger support zones — where real buyers can step back in and allow the broader trend toresume cleanly, rather than grinding higher without fuel.

🎯 Bottom Line

The breakout worked.

The stall was identified early.

The pullback roadmap played out cleanly.

From here:

• Expectchoppy upsideif price attempts to bounce prematurely

• Favorstructure and momentum alignmentover guessing reversals

• Let a proper daily reset do the work of rebuilding the trend

The next high-quality opportunity comesafterthis digestion phase completes — not in the middle of it.