SPY Market Analysis: Momentum Slips at ATH Resistance | December 2025
📊 Daily Market Analysis (SPY — Daily Chart)
On the daily timeframe, the sequence becomes much clearer.
Last Friday’sspinning topfailed to break above all-time high resistance at689.7, signaling hesitation right where bulls needed continuation.
What Happened Next
Monday:Price pulled back to test the breakout level above former bull flag resistance at683.67
Tuesday–Wednesday:SPY chopped sideways, repeatedly testing that level as support
Thursday:Bulls finally pushed higher and closed strong
Friday:That strength failed — price sold off hard andbroke the short-term uptrend
That Friday selloff is the key development.
The market didn’t just pull back — itlost momentum at the highs and broke trend structure, signaling that buyers are starting to lose control at this level.
🧭 Where That Leaves Us Now
Bulls may needmore fuelbefore another push higher — but the window to regain control is narrowing.
The most logical area for buyers to step back in is a pullback toward:
The50 SMA (Daily)
Newly establishedbull flag support
A controlled pullback into that zone would be constructive. It would allow momentum to reset, structure to rebuild, and give bulls a chance to reload for another attempt higher.
However, this is no longer a low-risk breakout environment.
⏱️ Bulls Are Running Out of Time
It’s important to note thatbulls can still restart upward momentum from here, but they need confirmation soon.
From here forward, the key tells will bemomentum-based, not price alone:
Daily MACD
TTM Squeeze
IfMACD rolls over and the squeeze fires to the downside, that would confirm that this pullback is transitioning into a deeper corrective or consolidation phase.
On the other hand, ifMACD holds, the squeeze remains contained, and price attempts another breakout, the market could still make it tonew highs on the next push.
⚠️ There’s a Line in the Sand
If pricefails to holdthe 50 SMA / bull flag support:
Theweekly uptrend would begin to break
Volatility would likely increase
A broader consolidation phase could unfold over thecoming weeks to months
That scenario would shift the environment from trend continuation to range management.
🎯 Bottom Line
The attempted breakout failed at ATH resistance
Daily trend structure has broken
Bulls are losing controlat the highs, not at support
The next move depends entirely onhow price reacts to the next pullback— and how momentum confirms it.
Either:
Buyers defend the 50 SMA / bull flag support and reload for another push
orSupport fails and the market transitions into a higher-volatility consolidation phase
After weeks of chop and compression,this is a true inflection point.
Let price show its hand — structure first, momentum confirmation second.
