Momentum Improves as Markets Eye a Christmas Rally

📅 DAILY MARKET ANALYSIS (SPY — Daily Chart)

Before we get into the chart, a quick note on timing.

This week’s analysis is coming later than usual because I was out of town on a cruise ship and unexpectedly didn’t have reliable service on Sunday. I fully expected to be able to get the work out on time, but simply couldn’t from the ship. This is the first time I’ve missed a Sunday update since I started sharing these, and I appreciate everyone’s patience.

With Friday’s weekly candle already closed, we’ll start there — and then work through the daily with fresh context after Monday’s close.

On thedaily chart, several important technical developments are lining upsimultaneously, which is exactly what you want to see when the market is sitting at another decision point.

First,DMI has crossed bullishwith today’s move back abovedaily resistance at 683.67. That shift confirms improving directional strength following last week’s volatility and failed breakout attempts. Momentum isn’t explosive yet, but it has clearly rotated back toward the bullish side.

Second,the moving averages are starting to cooperate again. Shorter-term SMAs are curling higher, and both the50-day and 100-day averages are beginning to turn upafter consolidating in this zone. That tells us the market has spent enough time digesting recent price action to rebuild structure rather than roll straight over.

Third,Bollinger Bands are beginning to contractafter the sharp up/down volatility we’ve seen near these highs. Compression following expansion is often the market preparing for its next directional move — but as always, thequalityof price action matters. Once price pushes into the upper band zone again,candle structure will be keyin determining whether a sustained breakout is likely or whether resistance holds.

From here,resistance is expected near the first upside target and current all-time highs. That area should be respected. A test is likely, but it won’t be automatic — how price behaves on approach will determine whether continuation or rejection is the higher-probability outcome.

Bottom line:

Themarket wants to break out. Structure is tightening, momentum is improving, and multiple indicators are aligning in a way that supports higher pricesiffollow-through confirms.

If you haven’t written Santa yet, now’s a good time — because with the way markets are positioning into today’s close, we’re clearly asking for a Christmas rally.

Let structure lead.

No forcing — just confirmation.