SPY Weekly Outlook: Structure Intact as Price Grinds Higher

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DAILY MARKET ANALYSIS (SPY — Daily Chart)

Last week’s price action resolved slightly stronger than initially expected — but importantly, without invalidating the prior framework.

Following the prior week’s loss of resistance and confirmation below, the market remained structurally vulnerable to choppier price action, even if a bounce developed. That framing mattered, because while price did push higher, it has continued to do so through grind, not force.

The catalyst early in the week (energy strength and broader macro tailwinds) provided the spark, but the structure told the story.

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What Actually Happened

• Monday: Price gapped higher, opened at Friday’s highs, sold off intraday, and found support into the close

• Tuesday: Flat open, steady continuation, new ATH close

• Wednesday: The first major target from the late-November impulse was tagged, triggering a healthy sell-off and momentum reset

• Friday: Price resolved higher again, breaking above the minor bull flag and resuming the grind

This sequence confirmed the minor bull flag that formed inside the much larger impulse structure that has remained intact since late November.

The key takeaway:

👉 This was not a reversal — it was digestion.

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Where We Are Now

Price is grinding higher toward the first minor flag target, while still failing to reclaim the rising weekly trendline with authority.

That distinction matters.

• This is not a bearish rejection

• It is a market burning momentum while staying in trend

And this is exactly where traders get into trouble by trying to be clever.

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How to Think About This Phase

This is not a signal to get fearful or step aside.

It’s a reminder to:

• Not fight the market

• Stay aligned with what price is doing now

• Let the tape lead

If you’re long:

• Stay long until you get real reasons not to be

• Weakening names go to the back burner

• Leaders stay in focus

• If leadership is unclear, follow the index

This is a grind-higher, momentum-burn phase — not a top.

The true “top,” when it comes, will be decisive and obvious, not subtle.

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What I’m Watching Next

Bullish continuation scenario:

• A push through the first minor target

• If that happens with momentum, the second target (which aligns with the larger pattern) could come quickly

• If it comes quickly, I’d expect seller presence and a clearer rejection, especially if price stretches outside bands / becomes extended on D or 4H

Alternate scenario:

• Price stalls near current levels

• Or tags the first target and consolidates

• A daily close back below the 10EMA would suggest a larger consolidation inside the weekly channel — still constructive, just slower

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Bottom Line

Price is heading to new highs.

That’s the fact on the table.

The job isn’t to predict the top —

it’s to trade what’s in front of us with clear entries, defined risk, and patience.

As long as the market grinds higher:

• Don’t fight it

• Stay selective

• Let structure do the work