SPY at a Structural Decision Point

🔍SPY Daily Analysis – Week Starting November 3, 2025

After last week’s strong open and brief push higher, SPY ran into resistance at689.85, faded to retest the681 weekly target, and in the process, carved out anew daily bull flag. Friday’s early weakness found strong buying at support, confirming the flag’s lower boundary and highlighting where control continues to shift back toward the bulls.

With theweekly closing in indecisionand themonthly starting overbought, this week’s structure carries elevated importance — the next move will tell us whether momentum can sustain into November or if a cooling phase is due.

Here’s how to frame the levels that matter most:

• Above 689.85:A breakout and daily close through this resistance would confirm continuation, opening the path toward the700 zone— aligning with both the next psychological and structural target on higher timeframes.

• Between 681 → 672.99:This is thesupport zonewhere bulls must defend structure. As long as price holds above672.99 (prior resistance), the broader trend remains intact, and bulls retain control.

• Below 672.99:A daily close under this threshold would mark the first technical crack in the uptrend, likely triggering a short-term correction to retest the50SMA, and possibly deeper supports depending on market tone.

Momentum View:
MACD, MomoSqueeze, and TrueMomentum remain constructive but are flattening — consistent with consolidation rather than reversal. The next signal will come from how momentum responds to this compression: a positive cross would confirm breakout continuation, while further softening could precede a volatility spike or corrective dip.

Bottom Line:
This market is at a structural decision point.

• Base case:Consolidation resolves higher with a breakout above 689.85 toward 700+.

• Alternate scenario:A break below 672.99 signals the start of the first real cooling phase of this long-term move.

As always avoid chasing extended strength or fading healthy pullbacks. Let the levels and structure dictate direction. Patience pays.