SPY Weekly Analysis – Momentum Weakens as Consolidation Deepens
📈 SPY Weekly Analysis — Week starting Nov 24, 2025
The daily chart was pure chaos last week — classic high-volatility structure where nothing plays out cleanly, but everything still follows the underlying logic if you zoom out.
We came into the week watching for a higher high and higher low to establish a clean bear-flag setup. Instead, the market broke below 661.21 right out of the gate, giving bears early control… but it still wasn’t ready for a straight shot to the 100SMA. Daily MACD’s average line holding above zero likely prevented that kind of clean continuation.
Instead of trending, price chopped its way higher mid-week and formed the new bear flag — only to unwind violently on Thursday. That breakdown hit the 100SMAexactlyand even closed below the new bear-flag support level.
That sets the tone for this week:
Key Things to Watch Now
1. Can price hold above or reclaim bear-flag support?
We already lost it once. A second failure — especially early in the week — puts meaningful pressure on the downside and opens the door for continuation lower.
2. Daily MACD Avg crossing below zero
This is the big one.
A cross under the zero line would confirm that higher-timeframe momentum has finally shifted to the bearish side. If that happens while price is already below support, the downside targets are likely to hit quickly.
3. The path for bulls to regain control
It’s still possible.
If SPY breaks above the bear-flag structure and closes over673.86, bulls would effectively regain short-term momentum. That would set up anewbull-flag structure and give buyers a path back toward the highs.
But the volatility means bulls must take control decisively — there’s no room for hesitation here.
4. Volatility is the invisible enemy right now
With the VIX at23.43on Friday, the market is in “whipsaw mode.”
Moves look directional… until they suddenly aren’t.
This is exactly when traders get chopped up by reacting to every candle. Don’t do that.
Stay calm. Follow structure. Let the levels call the shots.
If you’re unsure, wait.
There iszeroshame in sitting on your hands while volatility shakes out other traders.
The clean setup windowsalwaysreturn.
